基于支持向量机的地震预警震级快速估算研究

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摘要以更准确的估算地震预警(earthquake early warning,EEW)震级为目标，利用P波触发后3 s内的日本K-net强震数据，选取幅值参数、周期参数、能量参数、衍生参数这4大类共12个P波特征参数作为输入，构建基于支持向量机震级预测模型（support vector machine for earthquake magnitude estimation, SVM-M）。结果表明，比较传统的震级估算“τc方法”与“Pd方法”，建立的SVM-M模型震级预测误差明显减小且不受震中距变化的影响，小震高估问题得到明显改善。2016年日本熊本地震主震(Mj7.3)与2008年中国汶川地震主震(Ms 8.0)的震例分析结果表明，3 s时间窗不能匹配震源破裂全过程而出现了一定程度的震级低估，但仍可在P波触发后短时间窗内明确是大地震事件。建立的SVM-M模型可应用于地震预警震级快速估算。

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	朱景宝1
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关键词 ：地震预警(EEW), 震级估算, 支持向量机(SVM), P波, 特征参数

Abstract：In order to more accurately estimate earthquake magnitude, using Japanese K-Net strong earthquake data within 3 seconds after P-wave triggering, 12 P-wave characteristic parameters including 4 kinds of amplitude parameter, period one, energy one and derivative one were selected as input to construct the prediction model of earthquake magnitude based on support vector machine for earthquake magnitude estimation (SVM-M). Results showed that compared with the traditional earthquake magnitude estimation “τc method” and “Pd method”, the prediction error of the established SVM-M model is obviously reduced and not affected by variation of epicentral distance, and the overestimation of small earthquake is obviously improved. The case analysis results of main earthquake of 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mj7.3) in Japan and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Ms 8.0) in China showed that the 3-second time window can’t match the whole process of focal rupture, and the seismic magnitude is underestimated to a certain extent, but what happening can be determined as a large earthquake event within the short time window after P-wave triggering; the established SVM-M model can be used to rapidly estimate the seismic magnitude for earthquake early warning.

Key words： earthquake early warning (EEW) magnitude estimation support vector machine (SVM) P-wave characteristic parameter

收稿日期: 2020-04-16 出版日期: 2021-04-15

引用本文:

朱景宝1,2，宋晋东1,2，李山有1,2. 基于支持向量机的地震预警震级快速估算研究[J]. 振动与冲击, 2021, 40(7): 126-134.
ZHU Jingbao1,2, SONG Jindong1,2, LI Shanyou1,2. Rapid magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on SVM. JOURNAL OF VIBRATION AND SHOCK, 2021, 40(7): 126-134.

链接本文:

http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/ 或 http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/Y2021/V40/I7/126

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