基于非线性有限元和响应面方法的海底管道受坠物撞击损伤的风险分析

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摘要海底管道受撞击过程涉及非线性及管土耦合(海床柔性，埋深)作用，传统的风险分析方法难以考虑上述因素，无法有效指导工程设计。针对上述问题，同时考虑到相关变量的随机性，提出了海底管道受坠物撞击损伤的可靠度分析模型。基于Python二次开发技术将非线性有限元分析方法与响应面法耦合，构建结构的极限状态曲面并求解相应的失效概率。将有限元分析结果及失效概率估计值分别与物理模型试验值和Monte Carlo法的估计值进行对比，验证了模型的合理性。结合工程实例，分析海床柔性、埋深对管道失效概率的影响，并对相关随机变量的敏感性进行分析。结果表明：该模型可以考虑复杂非线性因素，更加精确地估计失效概率；考虑海床柔性时，管道的失效概率可降低至不考虑该因素时的千分之一；为降低坠物损伤风险，应结合工程海域的冲击能量确定管道的合理埋深；作为随机变量的管道钢材料屈服强度、壁厚、管径，三者的变异性对失效概率的影响依次降低。研究结果对管道的风险评估及安全埋深设计具有指导意义。

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	姜逢源
	董胜
	赵玉良

关键词 ：冲击荷载, 海底管道, 非线性有限元, 可靠度, 管-土耦合作用

Abstract：The impact process of submarine pipelines involves nonlinear effects and pipe-soil interaction (seabed flexibility, burial depth).Traditional risk analysis methods are difficult to take account of those factors and cannot provide effective references for engineering design.In view of this, considering the randomness of relevant variables, a reliability analysis model for the impact damage of submarine pipelines was proposed.Based on the Python secondary development technology, the nonlinear finite element analysis method was coupled with the response surface method to construct the limit state surface of the structure and solve the corresponding failure probability.The results of the finite element analysis and the estimation of failure probability were compared with those by physical model tests and by the Monte Carlo method respectively, and the rationality of the model was verified.Then, the model was applied to the engineering practice to investigate the influence of seabed flexibility and burial depth on pipeline failure probability.Besides, the sensitivity of random variables was analyzed.The results show that: The proposed method can estimate the failure probability reasonably and effectively, and complex nonlinear factors are considered to pursue a more accurate result.When considering seabed flexibility, the pipeline failure probability can be reduced to one thousandth of that without considering this factor.To reduce the risk of dropped object damage, the rational burial depth should be determined according to the typical impact energy of the related engineering sea area.As random variables, steel yield strength, wall thickness and diameter of pipeline have successively decrease effects of their variabilities on pipeline failure probability.The research results are expected to provide reference for the risk assessment and safe embedment depth design of submarine pipelines.

Key words： impact load submarine pipeline nonlinear finite element reliability pipe-soil interaction

收稿日期: 2019-10-11 出版日期: 2021-05-28

引用本文:

姜逢源，董胜，赵玉良. 基于非线性有限元和响应面方法的海底管道受坠物撞击损伤的风险分析[J]. 振动与冲击, 2021, 40(10): 209-217.
JIANG Fengyuan,DONG Sheng,ZHAO Yuliang. Risk analysis on submarine pipelines damaged by dropped objects impact based on the nonlinear finite element and rseponse surface method. JOURNAL OF VIBRATION AND SHOCK, 2021, 40(10): 209-217.

链接本文:

http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/ 或 http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/Y2021/V40/I10/209

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