Methods for analyzing uncertainty of results from accident simulation
ZOU Tiefang1, 2 Zhang Yonggang 3
1. Engineering Research Center of Catastrophic Prophylaxis and Treatment of Road & Traffic Safety，Ministry of Education, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114,China2. School of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, China3. Department of Security, Guangdong Police College, Guangzhou, 510230, China
Abstract：More and more accidents are simulated by accident reconstruction software, so the uncertainty problem of results from accident simulation draws more and more attention. The Upper and lower bound method, Finite difference method and Response surface method, which can be used in evaluating uncertainty of results from accident simulation, are introduced. And then the simulation times needed for each method are analyzed. After that, the feasibility of these methods is proved through three cases, and the strengths and weaknesses of each method are summarized, conclusion that the response surface method is the most adaptive method was obtained. Finally, a method for analyzing the large-scale uncertainty problem in accident reconstruction is proposed. Conclusions obtained in this paper can be used to guide research on evaluating uncertainty of reconstruction results from simulation.
2013, Vol. 32 
