New concepts including variation probability,variation speed,and variation acceleration,were proposed and a reliability prediction model was established to predict the variation process of reliability of rolling bearing vibration performance based on the maximum entropy principle and Poisson process.The maximum entropy principle was applied to calculate the probability density function of sample data of the intrinsic sequence.According to Poisson process,variation number and variation frequency of performance data outside the confidence interval of intrinsic sequence were achieved for time series subdivided.Variation speed and variation acceleration of rolling bearing vibration performance were calculated by discrimination processing for time.The rolling bearing (type SKF6205) was used as an example to illustrate the applications of maximum entropy principle and Poisson process in analyzing variation process.Experimental investigation shows that the variation probability of reliability presents a nonlinear increase trend with the increase of wear diameter,which can be divided into initial running stage,normal performance degradation stage,and performance deterioration stage.Moreover,the reliability prediction model can be used to analyze variation process of reliability under the condition of poor information,which is proven to be a useful supplement to available reliability methods.
夏新涛，叶亮，常振，邱明. 乏信息条件下滚动轴承振动性能可靠性变异过程预测[J]. 振动与冲击, 2017, 36(8): 105-112.
XIA Xintao,YE Liang,CHANG Zhen,QIU Ming. Prediction for variation process of reliability on vibration performance of rolling bearings under the condition of poor information. JOURNAL OF VIBRATION AND SHOCK, 2017, 36(8): 105-112.
[1] 夏新涛，章宝明，徐永智．滚动轴承性能与可靠性乏信息变异过程评估[M]．北京：科学出版社，2013．
[2] 张向东，陈家庆，孟波，等．牙轮钻头空心圆柱滚子接触状况的有限元数值模拟[J]．机械强度，2010，32(2)：280-285．
ZHANG Xiang-dong， CHEN Jia-qing，MENG Bo，et a1．FEM numerical simulation onto the contact status of hollow roller in rock-bit’s roller bearing system [J]．Journal of Mechanical Strength，2010，32(2)：280-285．
[3] 刘蕾，陈晓阳，俞力铭，等．基于ADAMS的灵敏轴承摩擦力矩的仿真分析[J]．机械设计，2012，29(11)：50-52．
LIU Lei，CHEN Xiao-yang，YU Li-ming，et a1．Simulation analysis of sensitive bearing friction torque based on ADAMS [J]．
Journal of Machine Design，2012，29(11)：50-52．
[4] Nicoleta M E，Florin D．Effect of fluid film wave bearings on attenuation of gear mesh noise and vibration [J]．Tribology International，2012(53)：108-114．
[5] 张丽静，王优强．振动冲击对海水润滑塑料轴承时变热弹流润滑的影响[J]．振动与冲击，2013，32(15)：203-208．
ZHANG Li-jing，WANG You-qiang．Influence of vibration and shock on transient thermal elastohydrodynamic lubrication of seawater-lubricated plastic bearings [J]．Journal of Vibration and Shock，2013，32(15)：203-208．
[6] 夏新涛，徐永智，金银平，等．用自助加权范数法评估三参数威布尔分布可靠性的最优置信区间[J]．航空动力学报， 2013，28(3)：481-488．
XIA Xin-tao，XU Yong-zhi，JIN Yin-ping，et a1．Assessment of optimum confidence interval of reliability with three-parameter Weibull distribution using bootstrap weighted-norm method [J]．Journal of Aerospace Power，2013，28(3)：481-488．
[7] Ali J B，Brigitte C M，Lotfi S，et a1．Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network [J]．Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing，2015(56-57)：150-172．
[8] 郑锐．三参数威布尔分布参数估计及在可靠性分析中的应用 [J]．振动与冲击，2015，34(5)：78-81．
ZHENG Rui．Parameter estimation of three-parameter Weibull distribution and its application in reliability analysis [J]．Journal of Vibration and Shock，2015，34(5)：78-81．
[9] 但召江，楼洪梁，李兴林，等．无失效数据下滚动轴承的可靠性估计[J]．轴承，2013(9)：22-24．
DAN Shao-jiang，LOU Hong-liang，LI Xing-lin，et al．Reliability estimation for rolling bearings based on zero-failure data [J]．Journal of Bearing，2013(9)：22-24．
[10] 贾波，刘福，雷正伟．基于最大熵方法对测量数据估计的改进方法研究[J]．价值工程，2010(28)：228-230．
JIA Bo，LIU Fu，LEI Zheng-wei．Study on evaluation of measurement result based on improved maximum entropy method [J]．Value Engineering，2010(28)：228-230．
[11] Verma A K，Srividya A，Bhatkar M V．A reliability based analysis of generation-transmission system incorporating TCSC using fuzzy set theory [C] 6th International Conference on Industrial Technology. IEEE，2006：2779-2784．
[12] Shinji U，Kawasaki Z I，Kenji M U，et a1．Use of wavelet transform and fuzzy system theory to distinguish wear particles in lubricating oil for bearing diagnosis [J]. Electrical Engineering in Japan，2001 (134)：36-44．
[13] 夏新涛，秦园园，邱明．基于灰自助最大熵法的机床加工误差的调整[J] ．中国机械工程，2014，9(17)：2273-2276．
XIA Xin-tao，QIN Yuan-yuan，QIU Ming． Adjustment for the machining errors of machine tool based on grey bootstrap maximum entropy method [J]．Journal of Mechanical Engineering，2014，9(17)：2273-2276．
[14] 杨杰，胡德秀，吴中如．基于最大熵原理的贝叶斯不确定性反分析方法[J]．浙江大学学报(工学版)，2006，40(5)：811-815．
YANG Jie，HUDe-xiu，WU Zhong-ru．Bayesian uncertainty inverse analysis method based on pome [J]．Journal of Zhejiang University (Engineering Science)，2006，40(5)：811-815．
[15] 张道兵，杨小礼，朱川曲，等．基于最大熵原理与最优化方法的隧道衬砌结构可靠度分析[J]．中南大学学报(自然科学版)，2012，43(2)：664-668．
ZHANG Dao-bin，YANG Xiao-li，ZHU Chuan-qu，et a1．Structural reliability analysis of tunnel lining based on maximal entropy principle and optimization method [J]．Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology)，2012，43(2)：664-668．
[16] 董新峰，李郝林，余慧杰．基于最大熵原理与鉴别信息的机床主轴系统退化分析[J]．振动与冲击，2013，32(5)：62-64．
DONG Xin-feng，LI Hao-lin，YU Hui-jie．Degradation analysis of machine tool spindle based on maximum entropy and discrimination information [J]．Journal of Vibration and Shock，2013，32(5)：62-64．
[17] 夏新涛，孟艳艳，邱明．用灰自助泊松方法预测滚动轴承振动性能可靠性的变异过程[J]．机械工程学报，2015，51(9)：97-103．
XIA Xin-tao，MENG Yan-yan, QIU Ming．Forecasting for variation process of reliability of rolling bearing vibration performance using grey bootstrap Poisson method [J]．Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2015，51(9)：97-103．
