事故仿真再现结果不确定性分析方法

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振动与冲击 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6) : 176-180.

论文

事故仿真再现结果不确定性分析方法

邹铁方1, 2 张勇刚 3

作者信息 +

Methods for analyzing uncertainty of results from accident simulation

ZOU Tiefang1, 2 Zhang Yonggang 3

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

越来越多的交通事故依赖于仿真软件进行再现分析，事故仿真再现结果的不确定性问题亦越来越受到重视。介绍了可用于研究该问题的上下界法、差分法以及响应曲面法；接着通过分析给出了各方法所需仿真次数；然后借助三个算例验证了各方法的实用性与适用范围，并总结出各方法的优缺点，发现响应曲面法适应性最强；最后探讨了求解事故再现中大不确定性问题的响应曲面法。所得结论可用于指导研究事故仿真再现结果的不确定性问题。

Abstract

More and more accidents are simulated by accident reconstruction software, so the uncertainty problem of results from accident simulation draws more and more attention. The Upper and lower bound method, Finite difference method and Response surface method, which can be used in evaluating uncertainty of results from accident simulation, are introduced. And then the simulation times needed for each method are analyzed. After that, the feasibility of these methods is proved through three cases, and the strengths and weaknesses of each method are summarized, conclusion that the response surface method is the most adaptive method was obtained. Finally, a method for analyzing the large-scale uncertainty problem in accident reconstruction is proposed. Conclusions obtained in this paper can be used to guide research on evaluating uncertainty of reconstruction results from simulation.

导出引用

邹铁方; 张勇刚 . 事故仿真再现结果不确定性分析方法[J]. 振动与冲击, 2013, 32(6): 176-180

ZOU Tiefang; Zhang Yonggang . Methods for analyzing uncertainty of results from accident simulation[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2013, 32(6): 176-180