采用广义Pareto分布进行车辆荷载效应极值估计的研究

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振动与冲击 ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (15) : 7-11.

论文

冯海月1，伊廷华1,2，陈斌3

作者信息 +

Estimation of extreme vehicle load effect based on generalized Pareto distribution

FENG Haiyue1, YI Tinghua1, 2, CHEN Bin3

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为了解决车辆荷载效应数据间的相关性问题并能够充分利用样本数据，本文提出了一种改进的独立风暴法。首先提出了一种三次类阈值法进行数据的初步分析来获得阈值；然后考虑到简支梁桥的车辆荷载效应主要受单辆重车影响，提出了改进的独立风暴法进行独立同分布样本数据的提取；最后采用广义Pareto分布进行车辆荷载效应极值估计；文末利用该方法，对动态称重系统记录的国内某大桥实测数据进行了车辆荷载效应极值估计，并与超越阈值法、独立风暴法进行了对比分析，结果表明：在较短评估期（T<20年）内，三种方法均可以较好地预测荷载效应极值；而在中长评估期内，改进的独立风暴法预测值较高，预测结果偏于安全。

Abstract

In order to solve the data correlation of the vehicle load effect and make full use of the data samples, the modified method of independent storms (MMIS) is proposed. First, a triple class threshold method is proposed to obtain the threshold by primary data analysis. Then considering that the vehicle load effect of simply supported beam bridge is mainly affected by the single heavy vehicle, the MMIS is adopted to extract the independent and identically distributed (IID) data. Finally, the extreme vehicle load effect is estimated by generalized Pareto distribution. In the end, the estimation of extreme vehicle load effect is performed on the measured data of the bridge recorded by weigh-in-motion (WIM) and compared with the peak-over-threshold method and method of independent storms. The results show that within the short estimation period (T<20 years), all the three methods can better estimate the extreme load effect, while within the middle or long estimation period, the estimation of the modified method of independent storms is higher and safer.

导出引用

冯海月1，伊廷华1,2，陈斌3. 采用广义Pareto分布进行车辆荷载效应极值估计的研究[J]. 振动与冲击, 2015, 34(15): 7-11

FENG Haiyue1, YI Tinghua1, 2, CHEN Bin3. Estimation of extreme vehicle load effect based on generalized Pareto distribution[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2015, 34(15): 7-11

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