研究车辆与自行车碰撞事故中骑车人的下肢损伤风险，并确定车辆碰撞速度、自行车速度和骑车人特征等参数对骑车人下肢严重损伤的影响。为此，从德国深入事故研究数据库（GIDAS）中挑选出471个带有骑车人下肢损伤的案例，并对其进行描述性统计和成组独立样本T检验，然后使用逻辑回归方法建立自行车骑车人下肢严重损伤风险函数模型，分析车辆碰撞速度、自行车速度和骑车人特征（年龄、身高和体重）对骑车人下肢严重损伤风险的影响。结果表明：车辆碰撞速度、骑车人年龄和体重是影响骑车人下肢严重损伤的显著性因素，其中车辆碰撞速度影响最为显著，其次是年龄和体重，且骑车人的下肢严重损伤风险与车辆碰撞速度、骑车人年龄和体重呈正相关。当汽车碰撞速度为55km/h时，骑车人下肢严重损伤风险几率为50%。
Abstract
This study aimed at investigating the injury risk of bicyclist lower extremity by using the real accident data. For this purpose, 471 cases with bicyclist lower extremity injuries from the German In-depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database were selected to conduct descriptive statistical study and independent samples T-test analysis to determine the effects of vehicle impact speed, cyclist speed, cyclist age, height and weight on the bicyclist serious lower extremity injury risk. Furthermore, bicyclist serious lower extremity injury risk model was established via using logistic regression analysis. The results revealed that the predicted collision speed, cyclist's age and weight were statistically significant factors affecting the bicyclist serious lower extremity injuries. Moreover, the collision speed was the most statistically significant factor, followed by age and weight. The higher impact speed, the higher bicyclist age and weight corresponded to a greater likelihood of suffering an AIS 2+ lower extremity injury. Bicyclist serious lower extremity injury risk reached 50% probability when the impact speed was 55km/h.
关键词
骑车人下肢损伤风险 /
逻辑回归模型 /
车辆碰撞速度 /
骑车人年龄和体重
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Key words
cyclist lower extremity injury risk /
logistic regression model /
vehicle impact speed /
bicyclist age and weight
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