水力发电机组轴系不确定性量化及参数敏感性分析

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摘要当前关于水力发电机组轴系的研究主要基于确定性的框架，但在实际工程中，不确定性因素对机组轴系的影响不容忽视。鉴于此，本文将在不确定性框架下对水力发电机组轴系结构固有特性和动态响应开展不确定性量化和参数的全局敏感性分析。首先，一个包含不确定参数的水力发电机组轴系动力学模型被建立。然后，基于广义多项式混沌方法构建了不确定结构参数与输出变量之间的关系，并结合最大熵原理，求得系统随机输出的具体概率分布表达式。另外，通过对多项式混沌展开系数的简单后处理获得了不确定输入参数对轴系结构固有频率和振动响应不确定性贡献的量化指标。同时，不确定性量化及敏感性分析的可靠性也用Monte-Carlo模拟进行了验证。最重要地，本文所提出的不确定性框架下水力发电机组轴系不确定性及参数敏感性研究对水力发电机组的设计，优化和运行具有重要指导意义。

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	闫懂林
	郑阳
	刘宛莹
	陈启卷

关键词 ：水力发电机组, 转轴, 不确定性, 参数敏感性分析, 多项式混沌

Abstract：Researches of the shaft system for hydroelectrical generating unit is mainly based on the deterministic framework. However, in the actual engineering, influences of uncertain factors on shaft system of that cannot be ignored. In view of this, this paper will be presented to devote to the uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of inherent characteristic and dynamic response of the shaft system for hydroelectrical generating unit under uncertainty framework. Firstly, a dynamical model of the shaft system for hydroelectrical generating unit is established including uncertain parameters. Then, relationships between uncertain structural parameters and output variables are described by the generalized polynomial chaos approach. And combining the maximum entropy principle, the concrete probability distribution expressions of random outputs are attained. In addition, indexes describing contributions of uncertain input parameters on the uncertainty of natural frequency and vibration response are gotten by a simple post-processing for expansion coefficients. At the same time, the reliability of uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in this paper is also verified by Monte-Carlo simulation. Most importantly, the uncertainty quantification and parameter sensitivity analysis of the hydraulic generating unit under the uncertainty framework proposed in this paper are meaningful for the design, optimization and operation of that.

Key words： hydroelectric generating unit shaft uncertainty parameter sensitivity analysis polynomial chaos

收稿日期: 2021-01-25 出版日期: 2022-05-15

引用本文:

闫懂林，郑阳，刘宛莹，陈启卷. 水力发电机组轴系不确定性量化及参数敏感性分析[J]. 振动与冲击, 2022, 41(9): 18-25.
YAN Donglin, ZHENG Yang, LIU Wanying, CHEN Qijuan. Uncertainty quantification and parametric sensitivity analysis of hydroelectric generating unit shafting. JOURNAL OF VIBRATION AND SHOCK, 2022, 41(9): 18-25.

链接本文:

http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/ 或 http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/Y2022/V41/I9/18

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