多重不确定性下的电气设备地震失效风险评估

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摘要电气设备的地震失效风险是进行电气设备抗震设计时的关键参数。本文考虑地震动、电气设备结构、电气设备性能指标及人为认知等多重不确定性，提出了考虑多重不确定性的电气设备地震易损性及地震失效风险的评估流程。算例结果表明，多重不确定性对电气设备的地震易损性及地震失效风险有较大影响。现有条件下，电气设备数值分析模型的认知不确定性造成了较大的标准差。抗震设防烈度及抗震设防地震动加速度峰值与电气设备地震失效风险之间不呈正相关关系。在评估电气设备的地震易损性及地震失效风险时，需考虑多重不确定的影响。

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	何畅1
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	王社良1
	江力强2

关键词 ：电气设备, 地震易损性, 地震失效风险, 多重不确定性, GIS套管

Abstract：Seismic failure risk is a critical parameter in the seismic design of electrical equipment. Considering the uncertainties of earthquake ground motion, structure and limited state of the electrical equipment structures and cognition, the process to assess the seismic vulnerability and seismic failure risk of the electrical equipment was proposed in this paper. The numerical example results indicated that different sorts of uncertainties have great influence on the seismic vulnerability and failure risk of the electrical equipment. In current status, the cognitive uncertainty of the electrical-equipment numerical models introduces a large standard deviation. The seismic fortification intensity, fortification peak ground acceleration and the seismic failure risk is not positive correlation. The different sorts of uncertainty should be considered in assessing the seismic vulnerability and failure risk of the electrical equipment.

Key words： electrical equipment seismic vulnerability seismic failure risk different sorts of uncertainty gas insulated switchgear（GIS）bushing

收稿日期: 2021-03-31 出版日期: 2022-06-28

引用本文:

何畅1,2，王社良1，江力强2. 多重不确定性下的电气设备地震失效风险评估[J]. 振动与冲击, 2022, 41(12): 84-94.
HE Chang1,2，WANG Sheliang1，JIANG Liqiang2. Seismic failure risk assessment of electrical equipment considering different sorts of uncertainty. JOURNAL OF VIBRATION AND SHOCK, 2022, 41(12): 84-94.

链接本文:

http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/ 或 http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/Y2022/V41/I12/84

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