基于多元Copula函数的桥梁体系地震易损性分析方法研究

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摘要为了考虑桥墩、支座等构件地震需求之间相关性，引入多元Copula函数对构件地震需求之间的相关结构进行描述，提出了桥梁体系易损性分析的新方法。基于增量动力分析结果建立了单个构件的易损性，采用核光滑方法对各构件的边缘分布函数进行估计；基于离差平方和最小准则和最小距离法对多元Copula函数进行了参数估计及优选；结合单个构件的易损性及多元Copula函数，建立了桥梁体系的易损性曲线，分析了构件地震需求之间相关性对桥梁体系易损性的影响。结果表明：桥墩、支座等构件地震需求之间的相关性对桥梁体系易损性影响显著；基于离差平方和最小准则构造的多元Copula函数，能够准确描述构件地震需求之间的相关结构，有效降低桥梁体系易损性分析的难度。

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	宋帅1
	钱永久1
	吴刚2

关键词 ：桥梁体系, 地震易损性, 多元Copula函数, 地震需求相关性, 离差平方和最小, 核光滑方法

Abstract：In order to consider the dependence of piers,bearings and other components’ seismic demands,the multivariate Copula function was adopted to describe the dependence structure of components’ seismic demands and a new method for the seismic fragility analysis of a bridge system was proposed.Based on the results of incremental dynamic analysis,the marginal distribution function of each component was calculated by using the kernel smoothing method.Parameters of the multivariate Copula function were estimated based on the minimum deviation square sum and the optimal Copula function was selected by using the minimum distance method.Combining the component fragility with the multivariate Copula function,the fragility curve of the bridge system was developed and the effects of dependence of components’ seismic demands on the system fragility were analyzed.The results indicated that the dependence of piers,bearings and other components’ seismic demands has an important influence on the seismic fragility of the bridge system; the multivariate Copula function constructed with the minimum deviation square sum can describe the dependence structure of components’ seismic demands accurately and reduce the difficulty level of the bridge system fragility analysis effectively.

Key words： bridge system seismic fragility multivariate Copula function dependence of seismic demands minimum deviation square sum kernel smoothing method

收稿日期: 2016-02-02 出版日期: 2017-04-25

引用本文:

宋帅1,钱永久1，吴刚2. 基于多元Copula函数的桥梁体系地震易损性分析方法研究[J]. 振动与冲击, 2017, 36(9): 122-129.
SONG Shuai1, QIAN Yongjiu1, WU Gang2. Seismic fragility analysis of a bridge system based on multivariate Copula function. JOURNAL OF VIBRATION AND SHOCK, 2017, 36(9): 122-129.

链接本文:

http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/ 或 http://jvs.sjtu.edu.cn/CN/Y2017/V36/I9/122

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