基于运动车辆与路面的耦合作用，提出了更加符合实际的汽车动载模型和轮载累加作用时间、代表温度和加载修正系数的计算方法及合理的材料模型参数，采用动力有限元法，建立了沥青路面车辙预估计算方法；采用车辙预估计算方法对某环道试验柔性路面和某高速公路半刚性基层沥青路面的车辙进行了预估计算，计算值和实测值基本吻合，表明该车辙顶估计算方法是可行的，并具有较高的计算精度。该方法能在路面设计阶段就可以有针对性地解决路面使用中的车辙问题，具有重要的工程应用价值。

Based on the coupling action of vehicle dynamic loading and the pavement，a simplified vehicle dynamic loading model is established, and new methods for calculating the representative temperatures , the time-series of the vehicle loading and loading revised parameters are proposed in the paper. At the same time, calculation method for rutting prediction is formulated by using dynamic finite element method. The rutting prediction calculation for a circuit test flexible pavement and a semi-rigid asphalt pavement is performed by using the method .The calculation results and the test data is almost equal, which indicate that the calculation method of rutting prediction is feasible and reliable. The rutting problem can be solved by the method, when the pavement is designed, so and it has high practicality value.