本文的目的是研究行人与车辆碰撞事故中下肢损伤风险,并确定碰撞速度和行人年龄、身高以及体重等损伤相关参数值在下肢轻微损伤组和严重损伤组之间的分布是否存在显著差异。为此,首先从德国深入事故研究数据库(GIDAS)中挑选出354个带有行人下肢损伤的案例来进行单因素方差分析,接着利用逻辑回归分析方法建立行人下肢严重损伤风险函数模型,分析车辆碰撞速度和行人年龄、身高以及体重对行人下肢严重损伤风险的影响。分析结果表明:碰撞速度和行人年龄是影响行人下肢严重损伤的显著性因素,而体重与身高不是影响行人下肢严重损伤的显著性因素。并且行人下肢严重损伤风险与碰撞速度以及行人年龄正相关。当碰撞速度为43km/h时,行人下肢严重损伤风险达到50%。
Abstract
This study aimed to investigate the lower extremity injury risk using the real world accident data. For this purpose, a subsample of 354 cases with pedestrian lower extremity injuries from German In-Depth Accident Study(GIDAS) database, were used to conductvariance testanalysis to check whetherimpact speed, pedestrian age, height and weight are statistically significance for pedestrian with or without serious lower extremity injuries. Then, serious lower extremity injury risk model was developed. The results revealed that impact speed and age are statistically significantpredictors for pedestrians sustaining serious lower extremity injuries. Risk of injuryincreases with increasing of impactspeed as well as does age was also found according to the data analysis. In the selected sample, the serious lower extremity injury risk is 50% probability at impact speed of 43km/h.
关键词
交通事故 /
行人下肢严重损伤 /
逻辑回归模型 /
碰撞速度 /
行人年龄
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