基于非线性有限元和响应面方法的海底管道受坠物撞击损伤的风险分析

姜逢源,董胜,赵玉良

振动与冲击 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (10) : 209-217.

PDF(2037 KB)
PDF(2037 KB)
振动与冲击 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (10) : 209-217.
论文

基于非线性有限元和响应面方法的海底管道受坠物撞击损伤的风险分析

  • 姜逢源,董胜,赵玉良
作者信息 +

Risk analysis on submarine pipelines damaged by dropped objects impact based on the nonlinear finite element and rseponse surface method

  • JIANG Fengyuan,DONG Sheng,ZHAO Yuliang
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

海底管道受撞击过程涉及非线性及管土耦合(海床柔性,埋深)作用,传统的风险分析方法难以考虑上述因素,无法有效指导工程设计。针对上述问题,同时考虑到相关变量的随机性,提出了海底管道受坠物撞击损伤的可靠度分析模型。基于Python二次开发技术将非线性有限元分析方法与响应面法耦合,构建结构的极限状态曲面并求解相应的失效概率。将有限元分析结果及失效概率估计值分别与物理模型试验值和Monte Carlo法的估计值进行对比,验证了模型的合理性。结合工程实例,分析海床柔性、埋深对管道失效概率的影响,并对相关随机变量的敏感性进行分析。结果表明:该模型可以考虑复杂非线性因素,更加精确地估计失效概率;考虑海床柔性时,管道的失效概率可降低至不考虑该因素时的千分之一;为降低坠物损伤风险,应结合工程海域的冲击能量确定管道的合理埋深;作为随机变量的管道钢材料屈服强度、壁厚、管径,三者的变异性对失效概率的影响依次降低。研究结果对管道的风险评估及安全埋深设计具有指导意义。

Abstract

The impact process of submarine pipelines involves nonlinear effects and pipe-soil interaction (seabed flexibility, burial depth).Traditional risk analysis methods are difficult to take account of those factors and cannot provide effective references for engineering design.In view of this, considering the randomness of relevant variables, a reliability analysis model for the impact damage of submarine pipelines was proposed.Based on the Python secondary development technology, the nonlinear finite element analysis method was coupled with the response surface method to construct the limit state surface of the structure and solve the corresponding failure probability.The results of the finite element analysis and the estimation of failure probability were compared with those by physical model tests and by the Monte Carlo method respectively, and the rationality of the model was verified.Then, the model was applied to the engineering practice to investigate the influence of seabed flexibility and burial depth on pipeline failure probability.Besides, the sensitivity of random variables was analyzed.The results show that: The proposed method can estimate the failure probability reasonably and effectively, and complex nonlinear factors are considered to pursue a more accurate result.When considering seabed flexibility, the pipeline failure probability can be reduced to one thousandth of that without considering this factor.To reduce the risk of dropped object damage, the rational burial depth should be determined according to the typical impact energy of the related engineering sea area.As random variables, steel yield strength, wall thickness and diameter of pipeline have successively decrease effects of their variabilities on pipeline failure probability.The research results are expected to provide reference for the risk assessment and safe embedment depth design of submarine pipelines.

关键词

冲击荷载 / 海底管道 / 非线性有限元 / 可靠度 / 管-土耦合作用

Key words

impact load / submarine pipeline / nonlinear finite element / reliability / pipe-soil interaction

引用本文

导出引用
姜逢源,董胜,赵玉良. 基于非线性有限元和响应面方法的海底管道受坠物撞击损伤的风险分析[J]. 振动与冲击, 2021, 40(10): 209-217
JIANG Fengyuan,DONG Sheng,ZHAO Yuliang. Risk analysis on submarine pipelines damaged by dropped objects impact based on the nonlinear finite element and rseponse surface method[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2021, 40(10): 209-217

参考文献

[1]王红红, 刘国恒.中国海油海底管道事故统计及分析[J].中国海上油气, 2017, 29(5): 157-160.
WANG Honghong, LIU Guoheng.Statistics and analysis of subsea pipeline accidents of CNOOC[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas, 2017, 29(5): 157-160.
[2]MOAN T, KARSAN D, WILSON T.Analytical risk assessment and risk control of floating platforms subjected to ship collisions and dropped objects[C]∥ Offshore Technology Conference.Houston: OTC, 1993.
[3]KATTELAND L H, OEYGARDEN B.Risk analysis of dropped objects for deep water development[C]∥ Proceedings of the ASME 1995 24th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering.Copenhagen: ASME, 1995.
[4]BAI Y, BAI Q.Subsea pipeline intergrity and risk management[M].Waltham: Gulf Professional Publishing, 2014.
[5]MAZZOLA A.A probabilistic methodology for the assessment of safety from dropped loads in offshore engineering[J].Risk Analysis, 2000, 20(3): 327-337.
[6]Risk assessment of pipelines protection: DNV-RP-F107 [S].Oslo: Det Norske Veritas, 2010.
[7]KAWSAR M R U, YOUSSEF S A, FAISAL M, et al.Assessment of dropped object risk on corroded subsea pipeline[J].Ocean Engineering, 2015(106): 329-340.
[8]丁红岩, 乐丛欢, 张浦阳.落物撞击作用下海底管道风险评估[J].海洋工程, 2010, 28(1):25-30.
DING Hongyan, LE Conghuan, ZHANG Puyang.Risk assessment of the submarine pipeline subjected to the dropped loads[J].The Ocean Engineering, 2010, 28(1): 25-30.
[9]JIANG F Y, ZHAO Y L, DONG S, et al.Risk analysis of submarine pipeline subjected to impact loads by anchor[C]∥ Proceedings of the ISOPE 2018 13th Pacific-Asia Offshore Mechanics Symposium.Jeju Island: ISOPE, 2018.
[10]ZEINODDINI M, ARABZADEH H, EZZATI M, et al.Response of submarine pipelines to impacts from dropped objects: bed flexibility effects[J].International Journal of Impact Engineering, 2013(62): 129-141.
[11]杨秀娟, 修宗祥, 闫相祯, 等.海底管道受坠物撞击时的三维仿真研究[J].振动与冲击, 2009, 28(11): 47-50.
YANG Xiujuan, XIU Zongxiang, YAN Xiangzhen, et al.3D simulation of submarine pipeline impacted by dropped objects[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2009, 28(11): 47-50.
[12]ELLIANS C P, WALLKER A C.Damage on offshore tubular bracing members[C]∥ IABSE Colloquium on Ship Collions with Bridges and Offshore Structures.Copenhagen: IABSE, 1983.
[13]BAI Y, PEDESREN P T.Elastic-plastic behaviour of offshore steel structures under impact loads [J].International Journal of Impact Engineering, 1993, 13(1): 99-115.
[14]姜逢源, 赵玉良, 谭俊哲, 等.海床土体减缓坠物对海底管道撞击作用的研究[J].工程力学, 2019, 36(5): 235-245.
JIANG Fengyuan, ZHAO Yuliang, TAN Junzhe, et al.Study on the effect of seabed soil on reliving damage of submarine pipelines impacted by dropped objects[J].Engineering Mechanics, 2019, 36(5): 235-245.
[15]庄元, 宋少桥.海底管线埋深问题研究[J].大连海事大学学报, 2013, 39(1): 61-64.
ZHUANG Yuan, SONG Shaoqiao.Study on the depth of submerged pipeline[J].Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2013, 39(1): 61-64.
[16]Dassault Systemes.Abaqus scripting user’s guide[M].Pawtucket: Dassault Systemes, 2016.
[17]RAJASHEKHAR M R, ELLINGWOOD B R.A new look at the response surface approach for reliability analysis[J].Structural Safety, 1993, 12(3): 205-220.
[18]OLOVSSON L.On the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian finite element method [D].Sweden: Linkopings University, 2000.
[19]WANG Y, DUAN M L, LI T T, et al.Experimental investigation on ship anchor impact on subsea pipelines considering seabed flexibility[C]∥ Proceedings of the ISOPE 2015 25th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference.Hawaii: ISOPE, 2015.
[20]RUBINSTEIN R Y.Simulation and the Monte-Carlo Method[M].New York: Wiley, 1981.
[21]DENG J, GU D, LI X, et al.Structural reliability analysis for implicit performance functions using artificial neural network[J].Structural Safety, 2005, 27(1): 25-48.
[22]张田, 张楠, 王少钦, 等.基于可靠度理论的桥上列车横风安全性分析[J].振动与冲击, 2019, 38(17): 226-231.
ZHANG Tian, ZHANG Nan, WANG Shaoqin, et al.Crosswind safety analysis for atrain running on abridge based on reliability theory[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2019, 38(17): 226-231.
[23]WIERZBICKI T, SUH M S.Indentation of tubes under combined loading[J].International Journal of Mechanical Sciences, 1988, 30(3/4): 229-248.

PDF(2037 KB)

279

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail

段落导航
相关文章

/