基于相对密度核估计的实时剩余寿命预测

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振动与冲击 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (22) : 308-318.

论文

基于相对密度核估计的实时剩余寿命预测

张江民，石慧，董增寿

作者信息 +

Real-time remaining useful life prediction based on relative density kernel estimation

ZHANG Jiangmin, SHI Hui, DONG Zengshou

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为更加准确评估系统运行过程中的实时剩余寿命，提出一种基于自适应相对密度核估计的实时剩余寿命预测建模方法。首先，建立非参数核密度估计剩余寿命预测模型，引入样本点k近邻思想计算样本点的相对密度自适应选择窗宽来提高在稀疏和密集区域选择窗宽的准确性和合理性；其次，在剩余寿命预测模型的建立上利用空间映射的方法建立相对密度核微分同胚变换方法来解决核估计在预测中的边界偏移问题，从而提高预测准确度。随着监测数据的实时变化，利用已知样本的核密度估计来递推更新得到新增样本的核密度估计。最后，通过算例分析来验证该方法的有效性和准确性。
关键词：相对密度；核密度估计；微分同胚；剩余寿命预测

Abstract

To evaluate the real-time residual life of the system more accurately, a modeling method of real-time residual life prediction based on adaptive relative density kernel estimation was proposed. Firstly, the residual life prediction model of nonparametric kernel density estimation was established, and the idea of sample point k-nearest neighbor was introduced to calculate the relative density of sample points for adaptive window width selection to improve the accuracy and rationality of window width selection in sparse and dense regions. Secondly, the relative density kernel differential homomorphic transformation method is established based on the space mapping method to solve the boundary shift problem of kernel estimation in the prediction, so as to improve the prediction accuracy. With the real-time change of monitoring data, the kernel density estimates of the known samples are updated recursively to obtain the kernel density estimates of the new samples. Finally, an example is given to verify the validity and accuracy of the proposed method.
Keywords：relative density; kernel density estimation; differential homeomorphism; residual life prediction

导出引用

张江民，石慧，董增寿. 基于相对密度核估计的实时剩余寿命预测[J]. 振动与冲击, 2022, 41(22): 308-318

ZHANG Jiangmin, SHI Hui, DONG Zengshou. Real-time remaining useful life prediction based on relative density kernel estimation[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2022, 41(22): 308-318

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