基于多次地震不同破坏状态恢复差异的地震灾害风险评估模型构建

高永武, 王东明, 陈敬一

振动与冲击 ›› 2024, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (19) : 258-265.

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振动与冲击 ›› 2024, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (19) : 258-265.
论文

基于多次地震不同破坏状态恢复差异的地震灾害风险评估模型构建

  • 高永武,王东明,陈敬一
作者信息 +

Constructing earthquake disaster risk assessment model based on recovery differences ofdifferent damage states of multi-earthquake

  • GAO Yongwu, WANG Dongming, CHEN Jingyi
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

概率地震灾害风险评估中存在地震危险性取值和多次地震对地震灾害损失风险评估影响的两个问题,本文在概率地震危险性分析(CPSHA)框架下,研究了地震动超越概率、极值概率和发生概率三种地震危险性表达之间的区别与联系,建立了这三种地震危险性表达之间的转化关系,并给出了采用地震动超越概率或极值概率计算发生概率的简化公式。根据承灾体震后恢复重建实际情况,对现有地震灾害风险评估模型假定进行了修正,推导出了仅考虑承灾体一次破坏的“首超”地震灾害损失风险评估表达式,并结合基于地震场地烈度频度的地震期望损失估计方法,提出了考虑多次地震不同破坏状态恢复差异的地震灾害损失风险评估模型,为地震灾害风险评估提供参考。

Abstract

This paper focuses on two problems in probabilistic seismic hazard risk assessment: the value of seismic hazard and the influence of multiple earthquakes on seismic hazard loss risk assessment. This article analyzes the differences and connections between the three seismic hazard expressions of ground motion exceedance probability, extreme probability, and occurrence probability under the framework of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (CPSHA). The transformation relationship between these three expressions of seismic hazard has been established. A simplified formula for calculating the occurrence probability using exceedance probability or extreme value probability has been provided. Meanwhile, based on the actual situation of post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction of the disaster bearing body, the assumptions of the earthquake disaster risk assessment model have been revised. The risk assessment expression of "first exceedance" earthquake disaster considering one failure of the disaster body is derived. A seismic disaster loss risk assessment model considering the difference in the recovery of the damaged state of multiple earthquakes is proposed based on the estimation method of seismic expected loss based on the seismic site intensity frequency. This provides a reference for seismic disaster risk assessment. 

关键词

概率地震灾害风险评估 / 地震危险性分析 / 地震动发生概率 / 地震灾害失效风险评估 / 地震灾害损失风险评估

Key words

Probability seismic disaster risk assessment / Seismic hazard analysis / Probability of seismic motion occurrence / Earthquake disaster failure risk assessment / Earthquake disaster loss risk assessment

引用本文

导出引用
高永武, 王东明, 陈敬一. 基于多次地震不同破坏状态恢复差异的地震灾害风险评估模型构建[J]. 振动与冲击, 2024, 43(19): 258-265
GAO Yongwu, WANG Dongming, CHEN Jingyi. Constructing earthquake disaster risk assessment model based on recovery differences ofdifferent damage states of multi-earthquake[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2024, 43(19): 258-265

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