基于证据理论的装药撞击点火不确定量化分析

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振动与冲击 ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (7) : 201-208.

冲击与爆炸

基于证据理论的装药撞击点火不确定量化分析

刘骁骁1，徐阳冰1，侯欣婷2，张峰*2

作者信息 +

Quantitative analysis of uncertainty of charge impact ignition based on evidence theory

LIU Xiaoxiao1, XU Yangbing1, HOU Xinting2, ZHANG Feng*2

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

炸药运输环境的要求较高也较为复杂，可能会有跌落、撞击等意外风险的发生，使得炸药内部形成局部损伤，引起燃烧、爆炸等后果。但炸药撞击过程中的不确定性使装药撞击点火也存在不确定性，从而导致现有的确定性定量分析结果往往过于保守或偏离理想状态。为此，本文研究了炸药爆炸过程中不确定性参数对装药撞击的影响，采用ANSYS/LS-DYNA，建立能够反映装药撞击点火的有限元模型，同时依据“裕量和不确定性量化（Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties，QMU）”概念，提出了基于证据理论的装药撞击点火“最大动内能和”QMU方法，建立了装药撞击点火最大动内能和的响应面函数，从而获得“最大动内能和”的概率上下界。最后，基于QMU理论，确定了装药撞击点火模型“最大动内能和”在不同置信水平下的置信因子，用以评价装药撞击点火结构的安全性。该项研究工作能为排查炸药撞击产生的安全隐患提供理论依据，亦为此后炸药运输的安全性设计提供基础保障。

Abstract

Requirements of the explosive transportation environment are higher and more complicated. There may be unexpected risks such as falling and crashing, which cause the local damages inside the explosive. This phenomenon leads to the burning, the explosion and other consequences. However, the uncertainty in the explosive impact process makes the charge impact ignition being uncertain. As such, the current deterministic quantitative results frequently depart from the ideal condition or are overly conservative. Consequently, the influence of uncertain parameters on charge impacts during the explosive explosion. ANSYS/LS-DYNA is employed to establish a finite element model that can reflect the charge impact ignition. According to the concept of "Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties" (QMU), the QUM approach of the maximum internal energy sum of the charge impact ignition can be proposed based on the evidence theory. Sequentially, the response surface function of the maximum dynamic internal energy sum of the charge impact ignition is established. Then the probability upper and lower bounds of "maximum sum of dynamic internal energies" are obtained. Finally, based on the QMU theory, the confidence factors of "the maximum dynamic internal energy sum" in different confidence levels can be determined to evaluate the safety of the charge impact ignition. The theoretical underpinnings for analyzing the safety risk, which is caused by the explosive impact, can be provided through this research. Meanwhile, the basic guarantee for the safety design of the explosive transportation can also be presented by the proposed method in the future.

导出引用

刘骁骁1, 徐阳冰1, 侯欣婷2, 张峰2. 基于证据理论的装药撞击点火不确定量化分析[J]. 振动与冲击, 2025, 44(7): 201-208

LIU Xiaoxiao1, XU Yangbing1, HOU Xinting2, ZHANG Feng2. Quantitative analysis of uncertainty of charge impact ignition based on evidence theory[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2025, 44(7): 201-208

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