基于可靠性理论，研究随机风作用下高速列车安全运行的可靠性和风险性。首先建立了随机风的数值模拟方法，并给出了随机风作用下非定常气动载荷的计算方法。然后建立高速列车多体系统动力学模型，计算不同随机风速作用下高速列车以不同车速运行时的失效概率及其对均值和标准差的灵敏性，推导了全局可靠性灵敏度的极值及极值点的计算公式，并给出了概率特征风速曲线。研究结果表明：随着车速和风速的增大，系统的失效概率增大；当车速固定时，失效概率对均值的灵敏度存在一个极大值，失效概率对标准差的灵敏度存在一个极大值和一个极小值。传统确定性方法得到的高速列车的安全域曲线偏于保守，基于可靠性的方法可得到更合理的安全域曲线。

The reliability and risk analysis of the safe operation of high-speed trains under stochastic winds is studied based on the reliability theory. First, the numerical simulation of the stochastic winds is established, and the unsteady aerodynamic load calculation methods for high speed trains under stochastic winds are studied. Then the multi-body system dynamics model of a high-speed train is established, the probability of failure and its sensitivity with respect to mean and standard deviation of high-speed trains running at different velocities under different stochastic winds are calculated. Moreover, the formula for the extreme values and extreme points of global reliability sensitivity are derived and the probabilistic characteristic wind curve is obtained in this paper. The results show that, the probability of failure increases with the vehicle or wind speed increasing. When the vehicle speed is fixed, sensitivity of the probability of failure with respect to mean has a maximum value, and sensitivity of the probability of failure with respect to standard deviation has a maximum value as well as a minimum value. The operation security domain computed by the traditional deterministic method is too conservative, and a more reasonable security domain curve can be obtained using the method based on the reliability theory.