Long-term Extreme Value Method to Determine Maximum Buffet Design Loads

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Journal of Vibration and Shock ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (14) : 1-6.

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Long-term Extreme Value Method to Determine Maximum Buffet Design Loads

Li Bin1 Zhang Yujie1 Yang Zhichun1

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Abstract

Abstract：Determination of dynamic limit load for a vibrating structure plays an important role in the dynamic strength analysis of aircraft. Bases on the order statistics and Gumbel extreme value distribution theory, this paper proposed a method to estimate maximum load encountered for a long operating time of the aircraft by the statistics analysis of the short duration experimental data. Using the buffet response data of an aircraft empennage structure as an example, this paper discusses the effect of different Gumbel distribution models, parameter estimation methods and the number of sample on the estimation accuracy of a long-term extreme value. The comparison of predicted and test results shows that Gumbel III distribution model is more suitable for prediction of buffet extreme value than Gumbel I distribution model, and the estimation relative error is below ±5%. The maximum likelihood estimation method also shows a little better than the least square method for the parameter estimation of probability distribution models. The further research shows that the least required sample number of test data must be achieved for a valid long-term extreme value prediction require. Moreover, the investigation shows that the long-term extreme value theory is more reasonable than traditional 3σ criterion to determine the dynamic limited loads for random vibration problems, and the limited load determined by 3σ criterion is partially dangerous.

Key words

Buffet Loads / Extreme Value Prediction / Maximum Likelihood Estimation / 3σ criterion

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Li Bin Zhang Yujie Yang Zhichun. Long-term Extreme Value Method to Determine Maximum Buffet Design Loads[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2012, 31(14): 1-6