Methods for analyzing uncertainty of results from accident simulation

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Journal of Vibration and Shock ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6) : 176-180.

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Methods for analyzing uncertainty of results from accident simulation

ZOU Tiefang1, 2 Zhang Yonggang 3

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Abstract

More and more accidents are simulated by accident reconstruction software, so the uncertainty problem of results from accident simulation draws more and more attention. The Upper and lower bound method, Finite difference method and Response surface method, which can be used in evaluating uncertainty of results from accident simulation, are introduced. And then the simulation times needed for each method are analyzed. After that, the feasibility of these methods is proved through three cases, and the strengths and weaknesses of each method are summarized, conclusion that the response surface method is the most adaptive method was obtained. Finally, a method for analyzing the large-scale uncertainty problem in accident reconstruction is proposed. Conclusions obtained in this paper can be used to guide research on evaluating uncertainty of reconstruction results from simulation.

Key words

Accident Reconstruction / Uncertainty Analysis / Upper and Lower Bound Method / Finite Difference Method / Response Surface Method / Simulation

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ZOU Tiefang; Zhang Yonggang . Methods for analyzing uncertainty of results from accident simulation[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2013, 32(6): 176-180