A calculation model of explosion power of dangerous goods stacked in container yards based on the Monte Carlo method

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Journal of Vibration and Shock ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (16) : 233-238.

CHEN Wuzheng1,2, CHEN Dapeng2, CHEN Li2, ZHANG Jingqing3, FANG Qin2

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Abstract

Explosion risk of the container yard stored with dangerous goods has drawn much attention in the society, since the "8.12" explosion accident in Tianjin Port. Due to the randomness of transportation and storage, it’s very difficult to determine the explosion power of dangerous goods stacked in the container yard, which, however, is required urgently by the present protective design and layout. Considering the uncertainty of types and quantities, a probabilistic method to predict the TNT equivalence of hazardous goods in the container yard was proposed in this study based on the Monte Carlo method. The influences of the effective protection probability and the type of hazardous cargoes on the explosion power was also discussed. It’s found that the explosion power of dangerous goods decreases significantly with the effective protection probability that lower from 100% to 90% would reduce approximate 31.8% of the designed TNT equivalence. The greater the ratio of the maximum value to the sum of the other TNT conversion coefficients, the more significantly the TNT equivalence of the container yard decreases. It is indicated that the cost and risk of explosion prevention should be coordinated. The cost of protective design and construction could be significantly reduced when the effective protection probability was determined properly.

Key words

explosion power / hazardous cargoes / container yard / Monte Carlo method / TNT equivalence

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CHEN Wuzheng1,2, CHEN Dapeng2, CHEN Li2, ZHANG Jingqing3, FANG Qin2. A calculation model of explosion power of dangerous goods stacked in container yards based on the Monte Carlo method[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2019, 38(16): 233-238

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