Extreme value estimation method for measured wind pressures on low-rise buildings based on the&nbsp; peaks over threshold model

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Journal of Vibration and Shock ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2) : 33-40.

Extreme value estimation method for measured wind pressures on low-rise buildings based on the peaks over threshold model

HUANG Peng, LAN Xinyue, ZHONG Qi

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Abstract

Typhoons have caused great damage to low-rise buildings and significant casualties in China almost every year.To understand the probability distribution of extreme values of wind pressures on roofs,especially on the corner,edge and ridge positions,is of important significance.The Peaks over Threshold (POT) model in the classical extreme value theory was used to properly estimate the extreme values of wind pressures on roofs of low-rise buildings under typhoons.First, theoretical formulas were derived,which describe the relation between the mean excess distribution and the threshold.Meanwhile,the generalized Pareto distribution was used as the fitted distribution of the wind pressure extreme values.Next,based on the measured roof pressures data on low-rise buildings collected under the Typhoon Malakas in the Pudong measurement base of Tongji University,the estimation results using different thresholds were compared to study the influence of the threshold.Then,the mean value of measured extreme values repeatedly observed in a standard time interval was defined as a standard extreme value to compare the estimated results by the POT model method and by other traditional methods,and the errors between them were analyzed.The research shows that the errors of the POT model method are less than 5%,and the POT model method is better than other methods,particularly when estimating larger extreme wind pressures on roofs.
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Low-rise buildings / Measured wind pressure / extreme value estimation / POT model / generalized Pareto distribution

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HUANG Peng, LAN Xinyue, ZHONG Qi. Extreme value estimation method for measured wind pressures on low-rise buildings based on the peaks over threshold model[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2019, 38(2): 33-40

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