The impact process of submarine pipelines involves nonlinear effects and pipe-soil interaction (seabed flexibility, burial depth).Traditional risk analysis methods are difficult to take account of those factors and cannot provide effective references for engineering design.In view of this, considering the randomness of relevant variables, a reliability analysis model for the impact damage of submarine pipelines was proposed.Based on the Python secondary development technology, the nonlinear finite element analysis method was coupled with the response surface method to construct the limit state surface of the structure and solve the corresponding failure probability.The results of the finite element analysis and the estimation of failure probability were compared with those by physical model tests and by the Monte Carlo method respectively, and the rationality of the model was verified.Then, the model was applied to the engineering practice to investigate the influence of seabed flexibility and burial depth on pipeline failure probability.Besides, the sensitivity of random variables was analyzed.The results show that: The proposed method can estimate the failure probability reasonably and effectively, and complex nonlinear factors are considered to pursue a more accurate result.When considering seabed flexibility, the pipeline failure probability can be reduced to one thousandth of that without considering this factor.To reduce the risk of dropped object damage, the rational burial depth should be determined according to the typical impact energy of the related engineering sea area.As random variables, steel yield strength, wall thickness and diameter of pipeline have successively decrease effects of their variabilities on pipeline failure probability.The research results are expected to provide reference for the risk assessment and safe embedment depth design of submarine pipelines.