Refined joint probability distribution model of wind and rain under typhoon and the failure probability estimation of transmission lines

FU Xing,XU Zhikai,LI Hongnan,LI Gang

Journal of Vibration and Shock ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (18) : 1-10.

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PDF(2400 KB)
Journal of Vibration and Shock ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (18) : 1-10.

Refined joint probability distribution model of wind and rain under typhoon and the failure probability estimation of transmission lines

  • FU Xing,XU Zhikai,LI Hongnan,LI Gang
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Abstract

Transmission line collapses due to typhoons often occur in the southeastern China, and most studies attribute the collapse to strong winds. However, typhoon landings are often accompanied by continuous rainfall. So, both the wind and rainfall effects should be considered. All the measured data of three typhoons, Mangkhut, Higos and Cempaka, were divided into three groups according to the typhoon regions (typhoon eye, spiral rain band, and peripheral strong wind region) based on the station location and the recorded time, considering the meteorological characteristics of different regions. Then, the correlation between wind speed and rainfall intensity was analyzed to reveal their coupling relation. After that, a refined wind speed and rain intensity joint probability distribution model for different typhoon regions was established. Finally, a case study was carried out through a transmission line, and its failure probability in different typhoon regions was calculated. The results show that the proposed refined wind-rain joint probability model can accurately describe the combination of wind and rain, which has reference value for engineering structure design and performance evaluation.

Key words

transmission line / typhoon / joint probability distribution of wind speed and rain intensity / correlation analysis / failure probability

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FU Xing,XU Zhikai,LI Hongnan,LI Gang. Refined joint probability distribution model of wind and rain under typhoon and the failure probability estimation of transmission lines[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2023, 42(18): 1-10

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