Remaining useful life prediction method of multi-stage degradation system considering random correlation among multiple components

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Journal of Vibration and Shock ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (10) : 311-322.

ZHU Yanjun, LI Ke, WU Bin, SHI Hui*

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Abstract

Degradation between components in multi-component systems may have different degrees of mutual influence, which makes multi-component systems often have multi-stage degradation characteristics. In view of the above problems, this paper considers the influence of the interaction between the components of the multi-component system on the degradation mode, and proposes a multi-stage system degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction method based on Wiener process with continuous degradation bidirectional random correlation effect. Firstly, a multi-stage Wiener process degradation model considering the influence of bidirectional random correlation is established by using the mutation point detection to describe the influence of random interaction between components on the degradation process of multi-component system. Secondly, to reflect the degradation heterogeneity of each component, and consider that the degradation rate of the component is composed of two parts: its own inherent degradation rate and the degradation rate generated by its related components. The drift coefficient and diffusion coefficient of each stage of the system are defined as random parameters, and the expectation maximization algorithm is used to estimate the unknown parameters. Finally, the Bayesian algorithm is used to update the posterior parameter distribution, predict the location of the mutation point, and derive the expression of the remaining life of the multi-stage degradation system considering the random correlation of degradation among the components according to the first passage time. The effectiveness of the method is verified by numerical simulation and C-MAPSS dataset.

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ZHU Yanjun, LI Ke, WU Bin, SHI Hui. Remaining useful life prediction method of multi-stage degradation system considering random correlation among multiple components[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2025, 44(10): 311-322

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